Weather the Weather

*Licks finger & holds it up in the air* Yep, the wind is definitely blowing from... who the hell knows where. Weathermen certainly don't. They can't be trusted.

Just as I was about to begin writing this post about my fascination/obsession with weather phenomena, I saw on Twitter that Nola.com had just posted an article stating that there is a tornado watch in the New Orleans area. So instead of continuing to track my thoughts on what I was going to write, I went to a weather site to see if there were any tornado watches in my area and just to check the weather generally. You might think, "Oh, that's pretty normal. I mean, if there's a tornado watch or warning in your area, you'd probably want to know about it, right?" Yes. Except that I don't live in New Orleans. I'm 6 hours away from that watch area...

In case of inclement weather in my area actually, though, I've been known to spend hours switching between Wunderground, NOAA, Weather.com, and IntelliCast comparing maps, graphs, and forecasts, and reading updates to the Scientific Forecaster Discussion.

So now you have the tiniest inkling into my hyperactive sensitivity to weather. We could spend all day speculating about why that is... maybe when I was little I dropped a would-be-delicious cup of milk on the floor because the thunder from a sudden storm scared me. That's a really specific hypothetical, so maybe I should explore that with a therapist one day, but the truth is, it's not as important to know why I'm so intrigued by the weather. I just am. What I really want to know is how do weathermen get paid so well to NOT predict the weather accurately?!

The "no hype" weathermen in my area are exactly the opposite of what they assume to be. If the Super Mega High Resolution Dopplar 6000 Radar shows twirling clouds and heavy thunderstorms dropping potentially deadly hail in the area just west of me and indicates that this supercell is heading toward my house, then their highly-trained, super smooth voices are not going to reassure me that all is well. I can see the vortexes, Bob. They're on that screen behind you. I think I even just saw you cry a little. So that's when I start asking myself, "What do they know that they're not telling me?" That's when I turn to the above sites. But is it because they're more accurate? No! Absolutely not! So then why check, you ask?

Well here it is:  Knowledge is power. What they don't tell me, I feel like I have to figure out on my own.

Once I'm on those sites, though, I really have to scrutinize the information with which they provide me. If the above 4 sites all give a different "probability" for rain on a given day, then I am compelled to examine why. And while I am no mathematician, I do realize that 70% does not equal 100%. But how many times have I banked on having a "snow day" that will force schools to shut down and all outdoor human activity to come to a grinding halt (this is the south after all), only to find that not only will there be no snow, there isn't even enough moisture in the few clouds there are in the sky to give us a light rain; that it's a beautiful, sunny day with a high of 35º F and not a chance of any precipitation whatsoever?! OR alternate scenario: when all of the above sites say there is a 60% chance of thunderstorms during this hour & throughout the next 5... but it's been raining like buckets pouring from the heavens for a half hour? That's not a 60% chance of rain... that's a 100% chance. Because it's raining. Right now. With no sign of stopping, ever.

In my very humble opinion, the "science" of meteorology is dubious at best. Data compiled from years of historical weather records are all well and good, but today is a new day. The truth is that weather is as unpredictable as what I'm going to do next. Because I don't even know... I'm just spontaneous like that.